Determinan Ketimpangan Pendapatan Provinsi di Pulau Kalimantan
Analisis Data Panel Periode 2010 – 2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31004/anthor.v5i6.1544Keywords:
Data Panel, Gini Ratio, Kemiskinan, Pengangguran, Rata-Rata Lama SekolahAbstract
Kalimantan memiliki kapasitas ekonomi berbasis sumber daya alam yang besar, tetapi kapasitas tersebut tidak selalu diikuti pemerataan pendapatan. Penelitian ini menganalisis tingkat dan tren ketimpangan pendapatan, menguji pengaruh rata-rata lama sekolah (RLS), tingkat pengangguran terbuka (TPT), dan kemiskinan terhadap Gini Ratio, serta menentukan determinan yang paling dominan. Data panel tidak seimbang mencakup lima provinsi di Kalimantan selama 2010–2025 (75 observasi) yang bersumber dari BPS. Uji Chow dan uji Hausman berbasis regresi bantu menetapkan Fixed Effect Model (FEM), sedangkan determinan dominan ditentukan dengan koefisien beta terstandarisasi. Rata-rata Gini Ratio turun dari 0,352 pada 2010 menjadi 0,287 pada 2025, dengan Kalimantan Barat sebagai provinsi paling timpang dan Kalimantan Utara paling merata. RLS berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap ketimpangan ( ; ). TPT berpengaruh negatif yang hanya signifikan pada persen, berlawanan dengan arah hipotesis, sedangkan kemiskinan tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Ketiga variabel secara simultan menjelaskan 56,41 persen variasi Gini Ratio di dalam provinsi, dan RLS menjadi determinan paling dominan. Pengaruh RLS konsisten dengan galat baku Driscoll-Kraay, Indeks Theil, dan subsampel 2015–2025, tetapi melemah setelah efek tahun dikendalikan. Temuan ini menegaskan urgensi bagi pemerintah daerah di Kalimantan untuk memprioritaskan realokasi anggaran pendidikan ke wilayah pedalaman, memperluas wajib belajar jenjang menengah, serta menyelaraskan pendidikan vokasi dengan pasar kerja daerah guna menekan ketimpangan secara berkelanjutan.
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