Transformasi Digital, Akumulasi Modal Fisik, dan PDRB Provinsi di Indonesia
Peran Mediasi Daya Beli dan Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31004/anthor.v5i5.1543Keywords:
Daya Beli, Data Panel, Modal Fisik, PDRB, Transformasi DigitalAbstract
Transformasi digital dan akumulasi modal fisik berpotensi meningkatkan output riil daerah, tetapi mekanisme transmisinya belum banyak dikaji secara simultan. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh Indeks Masyarakat Digital Indonesia (IMDI) dan Pembentukan Modal Tetap Bruto (PMTB) terhadap PDRB atas dasar harga konstan melalui mediasi daya beli dan Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja (TPAK). Data panel seimbang 34 provinsi di Indonesia periode 2022–2025 (136 observasi) dianalisis menggunakan regresi jalur tiga persamaan dengan Fixed Effect Model (FEM), galat baku cluster-robust, uji Sobel, dan cluster bootstrap 5.000 replikasi. Hasil FEM satu arah menunjukkan bahwa transformasi digital berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap daya beli, TPAK, dan PDRB, sedangkan modal fisik hanya berpengaruh signifikan terhadap daya beli dan TPAK. Daya beli dan TPAK berpengaruh positif terhadap PDRB, tetapi hanya daya beli yang terbukti memediasi pengaruh transformasi digital secara parsial dan modal fisik secara penuh. Namun, setelah efek tahun dikendalikan, seluruh koefisien jalur menjadi tidak signifikan. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa hubungan antarvariabel lebih mencerminkan tren nasional bersama daripada mekanisme kausal. Oleh karena itu, digitalisasi dan investasi daerah perlu diintegrasikan dengan penguatan daya beli serta penciptaan lapangan kerja produktif, disertai pengujian lanjutan menggunakan periode pengamatan lebih panjang.
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